Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 30.918932 34.497090 38.610189 43.759236 50.138996 57.936195 68.442273
2025-07-06 26.958034 31.791639 37.917817 46.545621 58.936690 77.151047 108.557014
2025-07-13 23.304499 28.462568 35.431399 46.095098 63.261093 92.904958 159.019255
2025-07-20 20.985407 26.340732 33.956134 46.457310 68.791317 114.260988 254.132326
2025-07-27 19.282327 24.736943 32.824016 46.920071 74.621031 141.380048 456.011854
2025-08-03 17.820956 23.245110 31.551113 46.744698 79.136644 170.874678 941.370790
2025-08-10 16.560369 21.881652 30.240315 46.142064 82.492195 202.562508 2736.136962
2025-08-17 15.643473 20.931628 29.449266 46.310309 87.820782 252.576191 NaN
2025-08-24 14.786781 19.982969 28.521961 45.984910 91.806156 309.252640 NaN
2025-08-31 14.012060 19.091636 27.579203 45.423414 94.958427 376.017567 NaN
2025-09-07 13.347648 18.322157 26.761942 44.969262 98.348353 467.241560 NaN
2025-09-14 12.795719 17.693183 26.128480 44.804582 102.773911 611.985679 NaN
2025-09-21 12.184830 16.933613 25.198972 43.837106 104.149808 754.123062 NaN
2025-09-28 12.023414 16.918980 25.665677 46.333811 121.152079 1848.070496 NaN
2025-10-05 11.546459 16.328769 24.963475 45.763531 124.822291 3190.943359 NaN
2025-10-12 11.198674 15.939801 24.618997 46.068905 133.296445 12532.318048 NaN
2025-10-19 10.891107 15.600705 24.340297 46.502757 143.278402 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 10.552816 15.186265 23.870833 46.320454 149.937820 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 10.204934 14.735610 23.290276 45.722803 153.784796 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 9.944757 14.429020 22.984967 45.886877 163.470529 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 9.664184 14.070770 22.542660 45.565635 169.684725 NaN NaN
2025-11-23 9.384463 13.700896 22.049365 45.012189 173.870354 NaN NaN
2025-11-30 9.130215 13.366526 21.609915 44.564619 178.917670 NaN NaN